After purchasing 16 cups I was on a huge losing streak. The win ratio of 1/6 (16.67%) printed on the cup I was suspicious of the statistics of actual cup wins. So with a 5/6 chance of losing, that gives (5/6)16 = 5.4% chance of happening. There must be something wrong. So I decided to plot my anecdotal results for 2019. Also, I just like making plots.
There are many ways to be suspicious of the cup wins. It is easy for them to print 1/6 wins, but how are those wins distributed? Majority in the middle of the Roll up season? Near the beginning or end? More information is required. The Yay! indicates today, 2019/Mar/21. The remaining flatline data at the end is due to no cups being purchased in the future.
I am more at ease with the wins as I made it to 1/6 wins overall! It is sad to see how often I actually purchase cups during the week. Although, compared to last year I had a 1/3 chance of winning. But that is statistics, no gaurantee.
NB I decided to end my journey as the Tim Hortons I attend ran out of large roll up the rim cups.
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